A recently-published academic article says that, over a twenty-year period, using coal to produce electricity contributes less to greenhouse gases than using natural gas. Natural gas produces less carbon dioxide but more of the more-damaging methane. Do we have energy transition backwards?
Read moreThis week in Hydrocarbons Colombia, we published an article based on an Andeg press release about the government’s proposed carbon tax increase. There are either fundamental errors in the proposal or in Andeg’s interpretation of how it would work.
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A couple of weeks ago, ACIEM, the Colombian engineers’ association, held its annual ENERCOL energy conference and National Hydrocarbons Agency (ANH), Orlando Velandia gave the closing remarks. He said a couple of things that seem to go against the grain of conventional wisdom.
Read moreIn the 1990s, the traditional, hierarchical telecommunications industry fought with those advocating newer, flatter networks. We called it the “Netheads versus the Bellheads” since, in North America, the largest traditional operators had come out of the so-called “Bell System”. Sitting in ENERCOL last week and listening to the traditional, hierarchical energy industry do battle with Petro government representatives advocating newer, flatter energy networks, I could not help but notice the analogy.
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Some analysts think there will not be enough generating capacity to satisfy demand as early as 2025. The Minister, unsurprisingly, assures that there will be. Obviously both demand and supply will determine what happens and both are highly uncertain.
Read moreThe current Colombian government certainly believes in the green hydrogen opportunity. As recently as earlier this month we have seen new announcements of Ministry plans. But is this real or just a feel-good press release?
Read moreThe obvious answer is yes. Eventually. Unless President Gustavo Petro is right, and the world comes to an end in 2030. (He did not provide a precise date so we recommend being prepared for everything to still be around until at least December 31st, 2030, just in case.) But many have doubts that the government will achieve its goals for the period 2022 to 2026. A recent article by Bloomberg Linea tries to address the issue.
Read moreYesterday’s holiday in Colombia coincided with the two-year anniversary of Gustavo Petro’s presidency. We are now at the mid-way point in his period. He – and we – have two more years to go. How do we evaluate his midterm examinations?
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Actually, we did not need XM’s data on electricity demand to know that the Colombian economy passes through a slow patch but it helps that the signals are consistent.
Read moreA recent Financial Times Energy Source article describes a disastrous transition project from South Africa. Describing it as a “cautionary tale”, the FT story demonstrates the problems with accelerating the shift from fossil fuels before having all the pieces in place. Colombia can learn from it.
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No this isn’t a Moiré pattern and you are not expected to see John Lennon’s ghost or something like that if you squint at it long enough or under the influence of an inappropriate substance (legal or otherwise). It also isn’t a picture of some fabric design you saw one Sunday at the flea market in Usaquen.
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Although XM has not published demand statistics for June, we do have the official summary of supply / generation. As El Niño came to a slow end, someone in authority decided it was over at the end of April and thermoelectric generation fell dramatically. We also check the solar statistics to confirm the positive press releases that came out last week.
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The Petro government is doing its best to promote rail and other forms of public transport but this year so far, the story is not great: rail cargo is down 11% year-over-year. The issue is coal (over 99% of all rail-carried cargo) which is down the same 11%. This and other stories about rail and mass transport from our review of the second quarter.
Read moreThe papers all say Andrés Camacho will soon leave his post of MinEnergia and even name his replacement. At the risk of President Gustavo Petro changing his – or Camacho’s – mind at the last minute, we reflect on the minister’s brief passage for the role.
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Colombia’s carbon tax is a mere US$6 per ton of CO2equivalent, perhaps a useful source revenue but hardly a disincentive. What would an effective tax look like?
Read moreReaders of our sister publication, Hydrocarbons Colombia, know the ANH well. The National Hydrocarbons Agency regulates the oil and gas business: high-level prospecting, assigning blocks, writing contracts with companies, policing those contracts, collecting royalties and other so-called “economic rights of the nation”. In his CREG-less vision of the future, President Gustavo Petro sees an expanded role for the ANH.
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El Niño made it clear that Colombia needs more, non-hydro, generating capacity as climate change increases the risk of drought. Government policy and good environmental stewardship say that will not be thermal. But if the answer says “other nature-based renewables” then the country risks trading one type of variability for another. We looked at XM data from 2023 to see what we could learn.
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Now that El Niño fades in the rearview mirror (really?) questions arise about the next climate event and whether Colombia has enough of a pipeline for new capacity to handle it.
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Our recent article about the viability of renewable energy investments leaned heavily on Levelized Cost of Energy or LCOE and, coincidentally, the Energy Institute (EI) updated its LCOE estimates for a range of technologies. For comparison and for local flavor, we found the UPME LCOE’s on the website (with some questions pending) and the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) estimates.
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Time for an update on the green (and other hued low-emission) hydrogen opportunity in Colombia. We look at that changing rainbow from a global perspective, report on some short-term challenges in the country with hydrogen-based transportation and reflect on the government’s efforts to put green H2 production at the center of its industrial strategy.
Read moreAt the end of February, we wrote about the importance of storage for highly variable renewable energy sources especially solar whose efficiency depends on latitude, location and sun’s angle to generate energy. And we noted the importance of finding greener solutions than the existing lead-acid and lithium-ion batteries to do this. In the meantime, we found a company in Panama selling a supercapacitor-based storage solution that meets these challenges.
Read moreWe return to the book The Price is Wrong by Brett Christophers to look at his conclusions and recommendations as well as the implications for Colombia and President Gustavo Petro’s policies.
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El Niño has dried up Colombian reservoirs, sapping the country’s ability to generate hydropower. The entirely predictable consequence is a dramatic increase in thermal generation from fossil fuels, the “Illuminati’s” worst nightmare. Lately, we have zoomed into XM’s data looking at daily statistics to see how the reservoir situation evolves. In this article, we mostly zoom out to monthly data to see what the larger trends might mean, zooming in to look again at Hidroituango.
Read moreI am reading a new book by geographer, Brett Christophers, called The Price is Wrong: Why Capitalism Won’t Save the Planet. He argues that, despite their now low theoretical cost per kilowatt-hour, solar and wind power, will not achieve investor profitability targets, resulting in under investment, certainly insufficient investment to displace fossil-fuel-based generation. That means either governments must continue to subsidize solar and wind power or – probably Colombian President Gustavo Petro’s preferred solution – state-owned enterprises will transform the energy matrix.
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The transition to train transport seems “on rails” this year in Colombia if you will excuse the expression, with government policy statements, new projects and new equipment. And we will not even get into President Gustavo Petro’s obsession with an underground subway in Bogota!
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Continuing on from last week’s Thursday Thought we look at some of the relevant factors using disguised data from a member of the Colombian electricity sector.
Read moreEveryone can agree that tariffs should be fair. Who would agree they could be unfair? The Minister of Energy, Andrés Camacho, says “Our goal is to guarantee fair rates.” But what does that mean? Fair to whom? Everyone? Is that even possible? Are Colombian tariffs unfair and how do you make that determination in the first place?
Read moreAs the sun goes down on a Ministry of Energy approved and organized Energy Community, what will happen? Darkness? Grid power? Or will a storage device kick in? The topic has not been discussed much, at least in the press.
Read moreePC readers know our skepticism about Colombian President Gustavo Petro’s idea of doing away with utility companies, generating all power with rooftop solar. National newspaper El Tiempo picked up a Washington Post article about a “zero electricity bill” community in Florida (Hunters Point) so we thought we would have a look again at the topic.
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President Gustavo Petro and MinAmbiente Susana Muhamad insist that El Niño is under control. The only really horrific climate-related disaster the country has had was caused by too much rain not too little, a local reminder that higher global temperatures mean more extreme weather not necessarily drier (or wetter for that matter) universally. So what is happening to the country’s hydro reservoirs and what power generation choices do we have?
Read moreOver the holiday period, we continued to monitor the Colombian press for articles on renewable power generation and sustainability more broadly. Some will appear as standalone articles in the coming days, but we also found the following items interesting and relevant.
Read moreThis week’s long essay was supposed to be about COP28, which (according to the schedule) would finish on Tuesday December 12th at 11am Dubai time. It did not. COPs have never finished on time and this one had sufficient controversy over the language around fossil fuels that I did not expect it to finish in time for my deadline.
Read moreThe Colombian Association of Electric Energy Distributors (Asocodis), on the eve of the XIX Electric Energy Distribution Conference, shed light on the challenges confronting the country in terms of the energy transition.
Read moreAt the 20th edition of the National Infrastructure Congress, discussions on energy transition took the spotlight, outlining innovative strides in the sector.
Read moreThe alliance between GreenYellow and the Barranquilla Port marked a significant stride toward greener operations.
Read moreThe Enel Group recently announced its global strategy for 2024-2026, focusing on profitability, flexibility, resilience, efficiency, and financial as well as environmental sustainability.
Read moreLa Guajira, Colombia’s preeminent department for renewable potential, is set to embark on a significant initiative at the onset of 2024 with the launch of the Energy Communities program.
Read moreThe future of Colombia's electric grid appears to hinge on a blend of renewable and traditional energy sources, a recent projection by the Mining and Energy Planning Unit (UPME) indicates.
Read moreThe Indigenous community in Colombia's La Guajira region has reservations about the wind energy initiatives, despite the region's enormous potential for wind power.
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Dialogo Canada is an annual forum to exchange ideas between Colombia and Canada about business and related policy issues. Organized by the Colombia-Canada Chamber of Commerce, the 13th edition was held on November 15th in Bogotá. After the introductory speeches, the first panel was on hydrogen (H2), a major topic for MinEnergia and investors, both local and international.
Read more Economic growth, the Colombian government’s plans for electrification and exporting green hydrogen all require significant increases in generating and transmission capacity. So far, the Roadmap and the National Energy Plan update have only looked at demand and how policy makers want to see it served. In October, the UPME published its annual report on capacity requirements to meet this demand.
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Recently national newspaper El Espectador published a syndicated article about leveraging Just Energy Transition Partners (JETP) to Latin America. JETP offers funding to emerging markets countries to accelerate their energy transition. Would this work for Colombia?
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In July, the Colombian government revealed its energy transition “roadmap”. In late September, the International Energy Agency (IEA), a global energy thinktank, published its “Net Zero Roadmap: A Global Pathway to Keep the 1.5oC Goal in Reach” and then recently published its World Energy Outlook for 2023. The public version of the IEA’s database does not break out Colombia so we cannot do a direct comparison, but we can make some inferences. So what, if anything, can we learn from these about Colombia’s transition roadmap?
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“Water under the bridge” refers to “events that are in the past and consequently no longer to be regarded as important”. But with El Niño already drying up Colombia’s hydroelectric dam reservoirs, energy planners have to worry about keeping back all the water they can.
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Last March, I wrote an article called “We’ll always have Paris” talking about the IPCC’s AR6 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2023 report which concluded that the world was unlikely to make the COP 21 – aka “Paris” – commitments to limit global warming to 1.5oC above pre-industrial levels by 2100. A recently published chart says we may already have blown it.
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In our recent article about MinEnergia’s roadmap, Greased Lightning, we noted that MinEnergia was not using the UPME’s forecasts, at least for the Transport sector and we asked “if the Ministry is not using the UPME’s numbers, whose are they using?” The Ministry website has an Excel with all the numbers (that we swear wasn’t there before) that allows a detailed comparison and an Appendix (that we must have missed) with an explanation of the different assumptions. At least now we know.
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Even when you are sure of what you are doing, a second opinion always helps. Also, when you need to be public with your actions, you always worry about what others – especially experts – think. So the Colombian government must have nervously awaited the opinions of the International Energy Agency (IEA) about the country’s energy transition plans.
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OK. Not strictly on topic. But we have to have fun every once in a while, and I’m sure your companies have discussed what Artificial Intelligence (AI) means for your operation. I have experimented with some of the more interesting tools, ChatGPT and MidJourney, so thinking you will find this useful. Or amusing. Or both! Or neither. (This article has lots of graphics. It may be better viewed on a laptop or pad and over WiFi.)
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XM, operator of the National Interconnected System (SIN) and administrator of the Wholesale Energy Market (MEM), reported consumption results for March 2023.
Read moreXM, the operator of the National Interconnected System (SIN), reported the number of new projects added to the SIN in the first quarter of the year.
Read moreThe Colombian Association of Engineers (ACIEM) presented comments on the proposed decree that sets policies and guidelines to promote efficiency and competitiveness in the national electricity service.
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I’m in Canada for a few weeks and getting to spend time with Barrie and Laurie, my retired, environmentally conscious friends. I got an update on rooftop solar and we took day-long trip in their electric Hyundai Kona. The shape of things to come for Colombians.
Read moreÓmar Vargas, Managing Director of Siemens Energy for the North Andean Region, spoke about the energy transition and the challenges of this process.
Read moreThe Superintendency of Residential Public Utilities (SuperServicios) has made new senior appointments.
Read moreEPM announced changes in the company's strategic areas and business units, including vice presidencies and subsidiaries.
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Colombian President Gustavo Petro has been doing the rounds of multilateral organizations saying that countries, like his, which steward resources that mitigate climate change (like the Amazon rainforest) should have their debt forgiven. The reception has been tepid at best and we expressed skepticism. Now a study by the French central bank casts further doubt on the concept.
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Colombia is discussing energy prices and reservoir levels. Experts spoke on the matter.
Read moreAcolgen's Natalia Gutiérrez spoke about energy prices and why power generators need signs of confidence from the government to move forward with more efficient technologies.
Read moreThe final draft of the National Development Plan (PND) includes a proposal to give the president extraordinary powers to create a state holding company for the electricity sector.
Read morePresident Gustavo Petro’s declaration that he personally would set utility rates has investors worried. Some industry associations and editorial writers say that investors will leave. However, it may not be as simple as charging off in a huff when the decrees are enacted or laws are passed.
Read moreJaime Pumarejo, mayor of Barranquilla, wants a law in Congress to lower rates in the coast which he claims are “inequitable and illegal.”
Read moreAlthough Colombia has a system of cross-subsidies these are insufficient to cover the shortfall for low-income families and the government of the day must write checks to the electricity distributors. José Camilo Manzur, president of the distributors’ industry association, Asocodis, estimates this could amount to CoP$2T by the end of 2023.
Read moreIn February Colombian President Gustavo Petro will file his government’s National Development Plan (known as PND for its initials in Spanish). The draft shows the importance of decarbonization.
Read moreCenit, a subsidiary of the Ecopetrol Group, reported the acquisition of the Cantayús small hydroelectric power plant (SHP), located in the municipality of Cisneros (Antioquia, Colombia).
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More power on offer should lower prices from what they might have been, but not all customers will necessarily see the benefit.
Read moreThe Ministry of Mines and Energy (MinEnergia) confirmed upcoming changes in management and coordination positions at the Vice Ministry of Energy. Here are the details.
Read moreColombians perceive they are still paying high energy prices, yet the country’s reservoirs are full, and the extended rainy season keeps them that way. Why?
Read moreOK. That is a bit exaggerated. But 2023 is officially underway and most Colombians are back from vacation. The policy-making machine is restarting, and our first Thursday Thoughts of the new year looks at what we think they will be working on.
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ISA S.A. E.S.P (BVC: ISA) reported its third quarter 2022 results. Here are the details.
Read moreThe government wants to get backlogged energy projects from previous auctions into operation, but some of these may be unfeasible.
Read moreEPM announced the contractor that will finish the civil aspect of the first stage of Hidroituango.
Read moreOur charter is to publish news on green energy, sustainability and, because it provides context, the broad Colombian electrical power sector. Lately, the traditional sector has crowded out the green.
Read moreBogotá granted Enel-Codensa an environmental license to move a substation to guarantee energy for the new subway.
Read moreThe Mining-Energy Planning Unit (UPME) announced an update to the 2020-2050 energy plan (PEN).
Read moreThe International University of Valencia conducted an analysis of renewable energies in the labor market.
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XM, operator of the National Interconnected System (SIN) and administrator of the Wholesale Energy Market (MEM), reported on the behavior of this metric in 2020. NOTE: Truncated scale
Read moreUN Secretary-General António Guterres called for an ‘urgent transition’ from fossil fuels to renewable energy.
Read moreThe global perception is that investment for green energies in Latin America is slowing down, but it seems like Colombia shows a positive outlook for the coming years.
Read moreEnel-Codensa announced the delivery of new SITP electric buses.
Read moreThe Colombian government’s blockbuster announcement that it would consider offers for its participation in the country’s long-haul transmission operator, ISA, is getting the headlines and the controversy but it appears that the government’s stake in EMSA, the main distributor on the department of Meta, is also for sale.
Read moreBusiness newspaper Portafolio says it obtained a confidential letter by a number of industry associations to the Minister of Energy saying the auction needs to be restructured, in particular it should be technologically neutral.
Read moreThe world is seeing a boom in solar energy projects, and Colombia is no stranger to this trend.
Read moreThe Ministry of Mines and Energy (MinEnergia) announced progress on Plan 5 Caribe.
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The National Association for Sustainable Mobility (Andemos) published its monthly report on the behavior of the hybrid and electric vehicle market in November 2020. Here are the details.
Read moreEcopetrol (NYSE: EC) and the government announced an agreement to promote energy transition.
Read moreThe government continues to analyze options to sell its stake in the country’s long-haul transmission operator, Interconectado Eléctrica SA (ISA). Interested companies are beginning to appear.
Read moreColombian economist, Lina Brand, explained why the energy transition process to renewable energies may not be as expensive, energetically speaking, as many thought.
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After we closed yesterday’s newsletter, the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MinEnergia) published the rules for the unconventional energy auction. Considering the importance of these rules for the Colombian energy industry, we decided to publish a special edition of the newsletter Here are the details from a MinEnergia statement, with translation by ePower Colombia.
Minenergía defines rules for the new renewable energy auction in Colombia
“Through resolutions 4-0590 and 4-0591 of July 9, 2019, the Ministry of Mines and Energy defined the rules for the new long-term renewable energy auction.
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Colombia officially started its energy transition process, and the fact that major cities like Cali and Medellín welcomed electric buses to their bus fleet, is proof of it.
Read moreThe government is looking to diversify the energy matrix with unconventional renewable energy sources. The Colombian Caribbean is positioned as one of the regions with great potential to develop these projects.
Read moreTwo Colombian companies, Celsia and Haceb, brought their innovation teams together to develop the first charging station for electric vehicles.
Read moreThe Ministry of Mines and Energy (MinMinas) discussed the relevance of water as an energy source for Colombia. The entity highlighted the role of hydraulic energy for the Colombian electricity sector.
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President Iván Duque opened the event where the government introduced the Mission of Experts that will lead Colombia’s energy transition process.
Read moreThe National Environmental Licensing Agency (ANLA) announced the creation of new sectoral environmental "agendas" in the country, in partnership with the Colombian energy sector. The entity announced a new agreement with the Association of Renewable Energies Colombia (SER Colombia)
Read moreThe development of distributed energy projects in the country continues to grow, despite the lack of a proper regulatory framework. This is what experts had to say on the matter.
Read moreThe National Association of Public Service and Communications Companies (Andesco) held the Ninth Seminar on Energy Efficiency. The association talked about this issue and presented proposals to improve energy efficiency.
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XM reported the energy consumption in March this year and the behavior of this metric was positive compared to the previous year. The company said that demand is falling in the middle scenario of the Mining and Energy Planning Unit (UPME) forecasts.
Read moreColombia aims to accelerate the diversification of its energy matrix with a loan from the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB). Here is how.
Read moreThe government announced the National Development Plan (PND) and some articles have aroused great interest in the energy sector. Eduardo Verano de la Rosa, Governor of Atlantico, spoke on this topic.
Read moreThe Minister of Mines and Energy (MinMinas), María Fernanda Suárez, explained the government’s plan to boost electricity coverage in the department.
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