Juan Pablo Ruiz Soto has climbed Mount Everest three times, reaching the summit twice. He is a consultant on environmental issues to the UN Development Program and a member of many boards including the Colombian branch of the World Wildlife Federation. His environmental credentials are impeccable, and he writes extensively on environmental issues especially for the national newspaper El Espectador. And (or perhaps ‘but’) he is an economist so he always writes from a rational, pragmatic, point of view. His most recent column concerns the growing number of internal combustion vehicles in Colombia and how to mitigate their impact on CO2.
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The so-called Paris accords committed the world to do whatever it took to limit the rise in global average temperatures to 1.5oC by 2100. The latest report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)– a respected group of scientists – concludes that there is virtually no chance of achieving this result. This will carry humankind into uncharted waters.
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A year-ago January I wrote “The cheapest kilowatt hour” about global efforts for energy efficiency. This January I found an article in Revista Semana about using technology for energy transition. I’ve collected several relevant reports and articles since then. Greater economic output for less energy remains the goal.
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I have been involved with forecasting since the mid 1970s. My undergraduate essay deals with forecasting models and my masters’ concerns the effect of outliers or unusual extreme events on projections. I have built forecasting models for everything from commuter train ticket sales to oil field production and supervised forecasting teams that produced millions of datapoints every year. But I still get surprised when people mix up where forecasts come from and what they mean. The lead graph from the UPME’s latest energy projections (above) illustrates the issue.
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President Gustavo Petro has other problems this week so we have not heard much from his plan to set electricity rates PERSONALLY! Turns out European countries have the same problem of “too high” tariffs and are looking for better solutions than simply making arbitrary cuts. In the UK, some think that making public utilities into so-called “public benefit corporations” would solve the problem but I have my doubts.
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“…I cannot make bricks without clay!” Hard to make good investments decisions without information.
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Colombian President Gustavo Petro has been doing the rounds of multilateral organizations saying that countries, like his, which steward resources that mitigate climate change (like the Amazon rainforest) should have their debt forgiven. The reception has been tepid at best and we expressed skepticism. Now a study by the French central bank casts further doubt on the concept.
Read morePresident Gustavo Petro’s declaration that he personally would set utility rates has investors worried. Some industry associations and editorial writers say that investors will leave. However, it may not be as simple as charging off in a huff when the decrees are enacted or laws are passed.
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No Colombian over the age of about 30 needs to hear this story but the rest of us do. Non-Colombians trying to understand the country’s energy policy will especially benefit.
Read moreDespite this government’s seeming indifference to the topic, electric vehicles (EVs) will be an important contributor to Colombia’s energy transition. But EVs are currently expensive and this raises concerns about their viability in Emerging Markets (EMs). A recent World Bank study sheds light on the topic and has recommendations that Colombia could leverage.
Read moreRecently I found this report by consultant EY that looks at the current state of the art in renewable energy with a particular emphasis on decentralized: “Can decentralized energy get good enough, fast enough?”, the November 2022 version of an ongoing research project. The title clearly states the key question but EY somewhat dodges the answer although it concludes that an essential tool will be smart grids – a technology to optimize the energy flow in a network with multiple generation sources and, as always, a large number of users.
Read moreOK. That is a bit exaggerated. But 2023 is officially underway and most Colombians are back from vacation. The policy-making machine is restarting, and our first Thursday Thoughts of the new year looks at what we think they will be working on.
Read moreIn June I wrote an article about not leaping to apply “green solutions” arbitrarily to any given situation without thinking through whether the idea made any practical sense. That article dealt with biofuels and mixing hydrogen with natural gas. Now a similar argument has come up, about the practicalities of industrializing H2. Since hydrogen plays a key role in the Colombian government’s and State-owned Enterprise Ecopetrol’s energy transition plans, I thought the ideas were worth discussing.
Read moreI have been unable to produce “Thursday Thoughts” for the past two weeks for personal reasons but I accumulated a number of notes and ideas over that time that, while none would serve as a full article on its own, each has their contribution.
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COP27 started on Sunday November 6th and I suppose we should be writing this Thursday Thought about the meeting. Instead, for various reasons (including skepticism about the COP27 outcome), I must produce this week’s and next week’s long articles in advance. I’ll write about COP 27 when it finishes. This week we look at the International Energy Agency (IEA) recently published World Energy Outlook 2022.
Read moreColombian President Gustavo Petro spoke at the COP27 conference in Egypt this week and laid out 10 strategies to save the planet. Most of the articles we saw in the press focused on his anti-oil and gas message, but we knew he was going to say that. What else did he say and what does it mean for the Colombian energy sector?
Read moreOur charter is to publish news on green energy, sustainability and, because it provides context, the broad Colombian electrical power sector. Lately, the traditional sector has crowded out the green.
Read moreConsultant PWC published its annual survey of board directors and grabbed attention with the finding “Two-thirds of female directors say reducing the impact of climate change is a priority even if it impacts short-term performance—compared to less than half of male directors.” And the trend went beyond just climate change: all aspects of ESG (environment, social, governance) showed big differences between male and female directors.
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I was looking for information on wind power in the Sabana of Bogotá and my geothermal expert recommended I call Angela Orozco of Inbatio. We had an interesting conversation about Inbatio’s investments in solar and an even more interesting discussion about why the firm does not consider wind power away from the coast.
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Some friends of mine back in Canada took a cross country trip in their all-electric vehicle. They are passionate conservationists, not followers of the latest trend. But they said they would never do it again. Would you do a cross-country EV trip in Colombia?
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Two weeks ago, my Thursday Thought was a mildly sarcastic – ok, very sarcastic – piece called “A solar panel on every roof”, where I criticized the idea that rooftop solar was the answer to power generation in Colombia. A few days ago, however, I read an article entitled “Community solar can help revitalize communities“, which sheds better light on the issue, adding some good ideas and new challenges.
Read moreA personal incident and an opportunity to hear the Vice Minister of Energy speak, contributed to this Thursday Thought about infrastructure challenges in the coming years.
Read moreDuring the electricity tariff debate, several commentators said that the solution to the problem was for everyone to generate their own power with solar panels. A chicken in every pot and a solar panel on every rooftop.
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Frequent readers probably find I use a number of set phrases or symbols, sometimes without too much explanation. I thought I better describe what I meant, at the very least so I can hyperlink them in future Thursday Thoughts back to this article.
Read moreWe spoke to Maria Lara Estrada of LATAM Airlines Colombia and she told us that the secret to cleaner aviation is all in the process. Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is the airline industry’s solution to lowering air travel emissions.
Read moreProbably not many readers younger than 65 have seen the movie “The Graduate” or remember the scene in a cocktail party where a family friend whispers in the recent-graduate’s ear “One word: plastics”. At that time, 1967, plastics were indeed the great opportunity for a young person just out of university. Not so much these days.
Read moreThere is an uproar over electricity prices, especially in the coastal region, and we predict this will lead to a confrontation between the CREG, MinEnergia and President Gustavo Petro. It will likely be another blow against the technocratic nature of energy regulation which Colombia has enjoyed for decades. We can see a solution but it may need the drama of a trainwreck to be accepted.
Read moreJust before his inauguration, President Gustavo Petro named his Minister of Mines and Energy, Irene Vélez. In these early days, she appears to be a controversial choice. In mining and the oil and gas part of energy, she is likely to be more antagonist than protagonist. But what will her role be in electricity and, especially, renewable energy.
Read moreI am writing an article on Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) based on an interview I did with one of the key players in Colombia. They are reviewing the draft so it is not ready yet (and I may publish it in Hydrocarbons Colombia as it somewhat fits better there). But stepping back from the details of SAF, it illustrates a higher order principal that I am calling – with no claim for originality – systems thinking.
Read moreMy mother has lived in Napanee Ontario for the past 48 years. One of my sisters lives there too now and a couple of time a year I go for a visit. Standing on my sister’s balcony and watching the Napanee River flow out to the Bay of Quinte and eventually Lake Ontario, I felt a glimmer of hope for the Earth’s environmental challenges.
Read moreI recently read to my 95-year-old mother The Economist’s Technology Quarterly series on high-tech solutions to the climate crisis. She is an able debater and, given her advanced age, she does not worry much about long- or even medium-term impacts (“I won’t have to worry about that”) but recognizes the necessity of doing something today.
Read morePresident-elect Gustavo Petro and his ministers-designate (principally Ambiente and Hacienda) have been clear about the fossil-fuel portion of the broadly defined “energy sector”. But some portions of the electricity market are becoming clearer and some remain unknown.
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The way MinEnergia talks about the growth of renewable energy you might have thought those “green” electrons were already coursing through the network, elbowing less virtuous ones out of their way. As if in some corny animated ad from the early 1960s, we might see them popping out of the wall socket: bright green for wind and solar electrons, blue for hydroelectric electrons and dirty grey for the fossil fuel generated particles. But no. Not yet. Or at least you would stare at your cartoon wall socket a long time waiting for a green electron.
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On Tuesday this week BP published its annual energy statistics but that is a mammoth database and it takes time to work through all the numbers. By good fortune, I stumbled across data on energy usage (KWh) per capita and I thought it might make some interesting charts.
Read moreThe concept of ESG – Environment / Social / Governance – is under considerable attack in recent weeks, as more traditional investors react against the concept that this should be the primary criterion for selecting a portfolio. I wrote about the critique that kicked off the debate in this Thursday Thought. But I recently came across a different kind of concern, that ESG-investing was working against the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
Read moreThis is kind of a follow-up to the article a few weeks ago where I estimated that replacing fossil-fuel-generated electricity with solar would require a ‘park’ the size of the north end of Bogotá or the expanse of the Tatacoa desert. Here I look at the power requirements for converting all of Bogotá’s cars to electricity, one of the government’s net zero objectives.
Read moreSometimes we are too quick to use apply “green” to anything which comes out of the ground and too quick to think one solution fits all situations. This came to mind for me when reading two contrarian articles about biofuels and mixing hydrogen with natural gas. Both essentially said, “We should not be doing this.”
Read moreNo I’m not referring to the pundits’ comments after Sunday’s presidential election round one, although I will briefly comment at the end, if only to bring last week’s pre-election Thursday Thought to a close.
Read moreIf you live in Colombia, are doing business in Colombia or have contacts who do so, the upcoming presidential elections on May 29th have been unavoidable. The survey-leading candidate is Gustavo Petro, who represents the radical left, but with the country’s two-round system (like that of France), poll results will not necessarily translate into a win. If, however, he does manage to be sworn in on August 7th, he promises a restructure of the country’s economic model which could impact all sectors, including energy.
Read moreI was struck by an article we published this week about a shopping mall which was ‘going green’. They were investing CoP$3B (about US$750,000) to build 7,800 square meters of rooftop solar panels that were going to produce just under 500 KWp. And all this effort was only going to offset about 20% of the mall’s electricity. That seems like a lot of effort for very little. I got to wondering about scale and how much it would take to offset Colombia’s fossil fuel-produced thermo-generation with solar.
Read moreI am in Barranquilla this week where there are not one but two energy-related conferences. Last week, President Iván Duque called Barranquilla, Colombia’s “Energy City”. This reflects his government’s energy priorities which have, indeed, made Colombia’s Caribbean business capital into a potential hub, even though the expected energy may not be seen for many years.
Read moreWhen ‘playing’ the Financial Times’ Climate Game, I recalled a very early computer game. But the Climate Game has more serious implications.
Read moreMinEnergia Diego Mesa tweeted a World Economic Forum (WEF) ranking which showed Colombia as the 29th best in the world at energy transition, third-best in Latin America. Researching this, I was inspired to write again about preparedness for transition.
Read moreThe country’s president, Iván Duque went to New York this week. The main headlines were about presenting results of the peace process to the UN Security Council. But he also went to the world’s financial capital to talk about green finance.
Read moreLatin American thinktank, The Dialogue, recently asked a panel of experts “Is Colombia on Track to Make the Shift to Renewables?” Their answers highlighted some key themes and got me thinking about related issues, especially in the light of other recent studies and, importantly, Colombia’s upcoming presidential elections.
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How much will energy transition cost and who will pay for it? Are we willing – are we able – to pay for net zero?
Read moreI opened an oil industry newsletter this morning to a photo of a group of oil workers (with remarkably clean overalls) around a drill rig and a title that said “These men produce the oil for my diesel truck”. Below it was a picture of kids playing in a dirty street with the title “These children produce the lithium for your electric car”. Like all such Internet memes, much has been exaggerated for effect and there is a grain of truth somewhere deeply buried.
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Colombia finds itself in an asymmetric situation: it is expected to be one of the most affected by climate change but it is way down on the list of those causing the phenomenon. So whatever it might contribute to lowering its carbon footprint will have only a minimal impact on its own outcomes. As a recent IEA study emphasizes, lowering its carbon footprint is less important than preparing the country for the damage that climate change might bring.
Read moreControl Risks is a specialized consultant firm “committed to helping our clients build organizations that are secure, compliant and resilient”. Every year at this time they publish the results of a survey sent to their clients and those who follow the company on LinkedIn. It was interesting to see where climate change ended up in the list of risks and in the list of opportunities.
Read moreIRENA, which stands for International Renewable Energy Agency, recently published a study it called “Geopolitics of the Energy Transformation: The Hydrogen Factor”. It is largely based on a survey it did of its 164 members and 162 global experts on hydrogen or energy. Colombia is mentioned five times in the 118-page report (six counting an anonymous appearance on a map) but the survey results did make me think about the country’s chances of success in this new industry.
Read moreAlthough late for Glasgow, a number of studies have recently come out dealing the energy transition and some of these have mentioned Colombia explicitly or provided guidance on how transition might evolve.
Read more“Green” these days means “environmentally friendly” obviously and, in the energy context, the topic of this website. But before we were so aware of our effect on the planet, “green” usually referred to “greenbacks”, a slang term for US dollars. “Green financing” means going for greenbacks for environmentally friendly projects.
Read moreI had not planned a sequel to last week’s Thursday Thoughts article on energy efficiency but then I stumbled upon a New Yorker piece about refrigeration and an apparent energy-efficiency death spiral.
Read moreBeing in Canada for several weeks over the year-end holiday period is a reminder of the differences between Colombia and North America in term of energy consumption. Despite these, the Colombian government believes there is still much that the country can do to be more efficient.
Read moreThe American Football Conference team in Los Angeles (late of San Diego) is called the Chargers and its logo (and nickname) is a lightning bolt. But none of the three origin myths of the name have anything to do with electricity so, none have anything to do with electric vehicles biggest challenge.
Read moreWith the help of the French government, the Ministry of Environment (MinAmbiente) and the National Planning Department (DNP) have written a game plan for Colombia to achieve its climate goals by 2050. We looked at the key points concerning energy.
Read moreYesterday we published the third article this year about Colombia’s plans for adding nuclear energy to the country’s energy matrix. The topic of what is “green” has been getting increasing attention in the local and international press.
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In policy-making, the relative often takes precedence over the absolute, not the least because it is often a more positive story. Such is the case with Colombia’s solar generation capacity.
Read moreLast week COP26 ended and we are still seeing stories about what it means and what it means for Colombia.
Read moreWe really dislike writing about scandals. Most of the time, they are a sideshow of no importance to investors or even to consumers. Writing about them just seems morbid. Sometimes it is hard not to write about them because the newspapers fill up with one story, crowding out other reporting on an industry. Sometimes it is hard not to write about a scandal because of the long-term consequences.
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