The economic price tag on a potential rationing scenario is the most important thing El País's May 25 expert survey adds to a story we have already well documented elsewhere, including today.
Read moreAndesco, Colombia's public utilities industry body, issued its starkest public warning to date on May 21, laying out five interconnected risk factors it says could drive the country into electricity rationing -- and giving the government a three-to-four month window to act before the dry season becomes unmanageable.
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Energy services platform Klik has published an analysis warning that Colombia's electricity grid faces a compounded stress test in the second half of 2026: the coincidence of El Niño, a structural firm-energy deficit, and the surge in demand that accompanies every Colombia match at the World Cup.
Read moreThe CREG's 2029-2030 firm energy obligation auction – the result that secured 4,069 MW and CoP$16T in investment – has a pronounced regional dimension that received little attention in national coverage.
Read moreColombia's electricity system regulator CREG closed its latest expansion auction on May 22--23, securing 4,069.7 MW of firm energy capacity and 15 new generation projects for the December 2029--November 2030 obligation period, with total committed investment exceeding CoP$16T.
Read moreThree industry voices converged in the third week of May to paint a consistent and sobering picture of Colombia's energy exposure as El Niño approaches: the sector is entering the dry season with a negative firm-energy balance, insufficient gas, a crippled Caribbean distributor, and a new generation pipeline that has chronically underdelivered.
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Several articles recently have noted the coming El Niño, perhaps “Super” El Niño and the need to ensure the hydro reservoirs are at their highest possible level.
Read moreColombia's Ministry of Mines and Energy published a draft resolution for public comment on May 7 proposing changes to the policy governing capacity allocation on the National Power Grid (Sistema Interconectado Nacional or SIN) – a measure framed by Minister Edwin Palma as aimed at freeing up connection slots occupied by stalled projects so that new generation, including clean energy and storage, can move faster.
Read moreColombia's only LNG import terminal, the Cartagena regasification plant, is scheduled to go offline for five days of preventive maintenance from July 30 to August 3, 2026 – deliberately brought forward from its customary October / November slot to ensure the infrastructure is fully available during the most demanding phase of the El Niño weather phenomenon forecast for the second half of the year.
Read moreMaría Nohemí Arboleda, general manager of XM – the ISA subsidiary that operates Colombia's electricity market and dispatch system – has given a wide-ranging interview to Valora Analitik that touches on three of the sector's most sensitive current threads: the unresolved legal dispute over a failed Siemens software contract, the growing role of solar generation, and the system's preparedness for a possible Super El Niño later in 2026.
Read moreJavier Ricardo Ruiz, general manager of Hitachi Energy Colombia, says Colombia's electricity system is under growing structural strain, combining rising demand, chronic project delays, and a dangerous over-reliance on hydropower -- a vulnerability that El Niño will sharpen into a crisis if left unaddressed.
Read moreThe president of Promigás, Juan Manuel Rojas, used the opening session of the Cátedra Luis Carlos Sarmiento Angulo lecture series at the Escuela Colombiana de Ingeniería Julio Garavito to issue a pointed warning about Colombia's energy security ahead of a probable El Niño in the second half of 2026.
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Colombia's electricity demand rose 5.67% year-on-year in March 2026, reaching 7,461.77 GWh against 7,051.48 GWh in March 2025, according to market operator XM. For the full first quarter, demand also expanded, climbing from 20,305.1 GWh in Q1 2025 to 21,210.9 GWh in Q1 2026.
Read moreAlongside its gas infrastructure ambitions, Drummond Energy is pursuing a significant renewable energy footprint in Colombia, with solar generation at the center of its carbon-neutrality strategy – though transmission congestion constrains the pace of expansion.
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Colombia's national interconnected system reservoirs recovered to an average useful volume of 62.8% as of mid-April, driven by rainfall over the preceding days, according to the latest report from the Superintendency of Public Services (Superservicios).
Read moreColombia is heading into a potential El Niño episode with a structural shortfall in firm energy capacity that leaves the system dangerously exposed to a prolonged drought, according to Natalia Gutiérrez, president of the electricity generators industry association Acolgen and of the National Business Council.
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A Corficolombiana research report cited by Bloomberg Línea delivers the starkest assessment yet of Colombia's gas supply trajectory: production is in freefall, imports are surging to compensate, and the country is becoming dangerously dependent on infrastructure never designed for the role it is now playing.
Read moreWith El Niño now forecast to arrive in September 2026, Colombia's thermal generation sector is navigating a dual challenge: securing sufficient fuel volumes while managing an increasingly stark price divergence between gas and coal that is already reshaping industrial consumption patterns.
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Luz Stella Murgas, president of Naturgas, used a wide-ranging El Tiempo interview published April 13 to deliver a specific and urgent message to Colombia's energy establishment: without new LNG import infrastructure entering service by the end of 2026 or early 2027 at the latest, the country will lack the gas supply needed to run its thermoelectric fleet during the El Niño dry season now forecast to begin in September.
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This week XM, the electricity market manager, highlighted that hydro reservoirs were not yet filled enough to withstand an El Niño event. It seemed to suggest using coal plants to let the reservoirs fill up a bit faster.
Read moreColombia's March 2026 inflation reading came in at 5.56%, marking the second consecutive monthly increase since February, but the energy components of the basket told a contrasting story of deceleration rather than acceleration.
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President Gustavo Petro used a post on X on April 4 to dispute a circulating claim that Colombia's energy matrix is 78% fossil-fuel-based, arguing that the figure reflects a methodological error by UPME technicians who count only solar and wind as clean energy while excluding hydropower.
Read moreForecasters are increasingly confident, unfortunately, that a Super El Niño — one of the most powerful climate events on record — could develop in the second half of 2026, with potentially severe consequences for Colombia's already-stressed electricity system.
Read moreColombia's energy, agricultural, and macroeconomic outlook faces a new headwind: the Ministry of Environment, IDEAM, and the national disaster risk agency UNGRD have all confirmed an 80% probability of El Niño developing and consolidating in the second half of 2026, with a 13% chance of a "super El Niño" — defined as sea surface temperature warming above 2°C — toward year-end.
Read moreThe Ministry of Mines and Energy issued Resolution 40163 on March 27, 2026, authorizing thermal power plants to commercialize imported natural gas on the secondary market — a transitional measure valid for six months designed to unlock underutilized LNG import capacity and broaden gas supply at a moment of acute national shortage.
Read moreSolar energy surpassed coal in Colombia's annual electricity generation in 2025, according to data published by the Unidad de Planeación Minero Energética (UPME).
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Colombia's Mining and Energy Planning Unit (UPME) released its 2024 Electricity Coverage Index (ICEE), showing that national household electrification reached 93.12% — up 0.45 percentage points from 92.67% in 2023 — as 539,351 new homes were connected during the year.
Read moreColombia's energy sector trade associations gathered in Cartagena on March 17, 2026 to issue a coordinated alarm over what they described as the deepest financial and operational crisis to hit the electricity and gas supply chain in recent memory.
Read moreEnergy and Mines Minister Edwin Palma used a Controller’s forum on March 18, 2026 to push back against what he characterized as an alarmist narrative around Colombia's energy security, while opening a significant new debate about a structural component of the electricity tariff.
Read moreHidroituango S.A. issued a stark warning about Colombia's electricity sector vulnerability after analysis revealed the Sistema Interconectado Nacional (SIN) experienced net capacity contracted in 2025 despite new generation project additions.
Read moreEnel Colombia registered 28,290 electricity theft cases during 2025, affecting service quality for over 300,000 customers and costing the company more than CoP$1.2B to normalize operations.
Read moreColombia's Energy and Gas Regulatory Commission published draft Complementary Agreement 001 for public consultation February 27, 2026, marking significant progress toward enabling the first bilateral electrical energy exchange between Colombia and Panama. The draft agreement develops detailed guidelines for cost distribution, interconnection remuneration, and efficient development of the binational project.
Read moreColombia achieved 93.12% national electric coverage in 2024 after connecting 539,351 new homes to the grid, with rural areas registering the year's strongest growth, according to announcements from the Ministry of Mines and Energy and Enel Colombia.
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More sunshine in Bogotá the past few days blinds us to the fact that the rains continue creating both engineering and political difficulties for the hydroelectric generators. We look at the ongoing controversies and try to understand what’s happening at Hidroituango, the country’s most important dam.
Read moreAcolgén raised alarms over economic emergency decrees issued to address Colombia's flooding crisis, warning they could enable government intervention in reservoir operations.
Read moreEmpresas Públicas de Medellín (EPM) recently published a primer to address public concerns about water management in the wake of heavy rains and President Gustavo Petro’s unsubstantiated accusations that the hydro plants had caused flooding in Colombia’s northwest.
Read moreLatin America's electric vehicle market surged to 632,992 electrified units sold in 2025—up 47.5% annually—but a dramatic charging infrastructure divide separates market leaders from fast-growing competitors like Colombia, according to data from Colombia's automotive dealers association (Aconauto) and the Latin American and Caribbean Energy Organization (OLADE).
Read moreEnlaza, a subsidiary of Grupo Energía Bogotá (GEB), completed the Alférez-San Marcos transmission line as part of the 500-kilovolt Southwestern Reinforcement project, strengthening electricity transmission capacity in Valle del Cauca and Nariño regions.
Read moreRenewable energy combined with nuclear power will account for 50% of global electricity generation by 2030, marking a dramatic acceleration in the transition away from fossil fuels, according to new projections from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
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Colombia's energy transition is generating measurable momentum, with the government projecting that expanding renewable capacity could deliver cumulative tariff savings of up to CoP$7 trillion for electricity users over the next five years.
Read moreWith reservoirs across Colombia running at elevated levels amid heavy ongoing rainfall, the Ministry of Mines and Energy issued Circular 40008 on February 10, 2026, calling on wholesale electricity market participants—particularly hydroelectric and low-cost technology generators—to embrace the Energy Commission's (CREG) new Low Prices by Technology rules and translate hydrological conditions into lower tariffs for end users.
Read moreColombia's utility industry association Andesco and energy think tank CREE published a study in late January warning of mounting structural risks to the country's natural gas supply, with all three articles covering the same report released on January 28.
Read moreThe Ministry of Mines and Energy issued a formal preventive alert on February 12, ordering wholesale electricity generators to reinforce measures ensuring continuous and safe power supply across Colombia. The directive was issued through Circular 40009, addressed to all agents operating in the wholesale electricity market.
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Never one to let facts get in the way of a good smokescreen and always looking for an opportunity to denigrate the power generation industry, President Gustavo Petro blames the hydroelectric plants for spilling an excess of water on the unfortunate residents of Colombia’s northwest. He says they did it to raise tariffs by having more power generated by thermal.
Read moreThe Superintendent of Public Services, Felipe Durán Carrón, conducted an inspection Saturday at the Urrá hydroelectric plant in Córdoba following President Gustavo Petro's attribution of partial responsibility for Caribbean coast flooding to energy generating companies.
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Ecuador's Ministry of Environment and Energy asserted that the national electrical system has sufficient capacity to meet daily energy demand with domestic generation, even facing potential limitations on imports from Colombia.
Read moreColombia's energy panorama for 2026 is expected to be one of the most challenging of the last decade, with rising prices and a narrow margin between generation and demand driving projected growth of 20-40% in the energy efficiency technology market.
Read moreEPM announced the successful rehabilitation of the Sonsón hydroelectric plant in eastern Antioquia, restoring 18.5 megawatts (MW) of clean energy capacity to Colombia's National Interconnected System (SIN) following a CoP$24B investment.
Read moreISA Energía Peru, a subsidiary of Colombian state-controlled long-distance electrical transmission company, announced commercial operation of the San Gabriel connection project, representing the highest-altitude electrical infrastructure in the company's history.
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Colombia's Ministry of Mines and Energy issued a resolution suspending International Electricity Transactions (TIE) with Ecuador, responding to tariff measures announced by Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa while prioritizing domestic energy security amid climate variability concerns. The decision affects electricity flows representing 8-10% of Ecuador's consumption, according to government data.
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Last week I wrote about reservoir levels but didn’t include generation statistics (because we hadn’t updated our detailed databases) and yesterday we wrote about monthly generation statistics but had nothing to say about demand (because XM hasn’t updated its monthly demand figures).
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Power market manager XM reported that reservoir levels went down in December. Power generation was up but not from hydro. Instead, the increase came from solar (no surprise) and coal (surprise!)
Read moreGrupo Energía Bogotá's (GEB) subsidiary Enlaza inaugurated the Bonda 220 kV transmission project, key infrastructure designed to strengthen the National Transmission System, improve electrical service reliability, and facilitate integration of renewable energy projects in Colombia's Caribbean region
Read moreColombia's Ministry of Mines and Energy announced the launch of "Caribe Conectado: Urgent Works for Reliable and Competitive Electric Service," a US$1.7B infrastructure program designed to strengthen the Caribbean region's electrical grid and enable integration of up to 6 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy capacity.
Read moreAn Arbitration Tribunal approved an agreement between EPM and Sociedad Hidroeléctrica Ituango, ending arbitration proceedings initiated in 2020
Read moreISA (Interconexión Eléctrica S.A.) commenced operations of Brazil's first project employing Flexible AC Transmission Systems (FACTS) technology, addressing urgent industrial demand in São Paulo state while structural infrastructure works are executed.
Read moreColombia's Ministry of Minas y Energía published a draft resolution proposing a controversial COP$8 per kilowatt-hour surcharge on all users nationwide to address Air-e's COP$2-3 trillion debt, sparking fierce debate about who should bear the burden of the Caribbean energy distributor's financial collapse.
Read moreThe Colombia Solar program was officially launched in Barranquilla on Monday, December 30, following the signing of an interadministrative agreement between Energy Minister Edwin Palma and Gecelca's acting president Erick Wehdeking.
Read moreThe Ministry of Minas y Energía, together with the National Planning Department and Ministry of Finance and Public Credit, subscribed ordinary future commitments recently approved by the Superior Council of Fiscal Policy (CONFIS) and the entity's contracting committee.
Read moreFinanciera de Desarrollo Nacional (FDN) announced the financial closing of Parque Solar Terra Site I, located in Copey municipality in Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta.
Read moreTerpel Sunex, a subsidiary of Organización Terpel founded in 2021, is advancing Colombia's energy transition by developing large-scale solar generation projects. The company positions itself as a strategic partner for businesses seeking sustainability and positive environmental impact through clean energy solutions.
Read moreColombia's energy sector faces a convergent triple crisis as 2026 approaches, with analysts warning that inadequate generation capacity expansion, declining gas production requiring costly imports, and Caribbean operators' financial collapse threaten national energy security and potential rationing.
Read morePresident Gustavo Petro categorically rejected industry warnings about potential power outages in Colombia, asserting the country possesses sufficient resources to guarantee service to households and industries.
Read moreCelsia CEO Ricardo Sierra warned that Colombia is already experiencing a "silent rationing" of electricity, characterized by connection denials and supply restrictions that don't yet constitute formal nationwide rationing but signal serious underlying problems.
Read moreDecember 6, 2025: Air-e and Afinia, the two electricity distribution companies serving Colombia's Caribbean coast, announced a collaborative effort to address the region's persistent energy challenges through a common agenda focused on structural solutions.
Read moreOn December 3, 2025, EPM confirmed a strategic agreement with Erco Energía S.A.S. and a European investor to develop a new solar project of approximately 400 MWp, representing an investment of up to US$400 million. The ambitious initiative seeks to strengthen Colombia's energy matrix amid the growing gap between supply and demand.
Read moreColombia has already entered a phase of energy rationing, according to Natalia Gutiérrez, president of the Colombian Association of Electric Energy Generators (Acolgen), during her intervention at the 'Country Perspectives 2026' forum organized by Revista CAMBIO.
Read moreOn December 5, 2025, the Ministry of Mines and Energy announced the creation of Gecelca Solar, marking a historic shift from coal-fired thermal generation to clean energy production.
Read morePresident Gustavo Petro surprised observers on December 5, 2025, by publicly congratulating Grupo Sarmiento, the conglomerate founded by Luis Carlos Sarmiento Angulo—Colombia's wealthiest individual—following the announcement of a major renewable energy investment. The gesture is notable given Petro's history of criticizing large business groups.
Read moreThe National Environmental Licensing Authority (ANLA) granted environmental licenses on December 1, 2025, to two strategic clean energy projects in Córdoba department: the Aries Solar Park and the Sahagún 2 Transmission Line at 500 kV.
Read moreThe Energy and Gas Regulatory Commission (CREG) published Resolution CREG 101 094 of 2025, establishing transitional rules to make network use more efficient, promote electrical sector reliability through project entry, ensure demand supply, and initiate a new process for assigning connection points to generation plants.
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Demand was up 2.4% and generation 3.1% over 2024 while reservoirs continued to fill during the month of October. The generation statistic caught our attention because the SPEC regas facility was offline for a week for scheduled maintenance.
Read moreISA announced it will install Colombia's Caribbean region's first public network of fast-charging stations for electric vehicles along the Cartagena-Barranquilla corridor and the Circunvalar de La Prosperidad highway.
Read moreColombia's Ministry of Mines and Energy announced a historic initiative during the II Summit on Governance for Just Energy Transition and Peace in Santa Marta on November 24, 2025: the creation of a National Association of Energy Communities.
Read moreAfinia, EPM's electricity distribution subsidiary serving Colombia's Caribbean coast, faces a projected deficit of 1.5 to 1.8 trillion pesos in 2026, according to Ricardo Arango, the company's general manager.
Read moreColombia's electricity distributors and retailers have issued a dire warning about proposed regulatory changes that could devastate the sector.
Read moreColombia's electricity spot market experienced a dramatic 88.7% price decline in October 2025 compared to the same month in 2024, but consumers should not expect similar reductions in their energy bills.
Read moreEnergy demand in October 2025 increased 2.44% compared to September 2024, with consumption exceeding 7,197 gigawatt-hours. The Caribbean region led consumption across Colombia's 10 major regions monitored by XM, the country's electric market operator.
Read moreGrupo Energía Bogotá (GEB) has secured a key contract from Colombia's Mining-Energy Planning Unit (UPME) on November 24 to build, operate, and maintain the 230 kV Sopó substation and associated transmission lines in Guasca, Sopó, and La Calera, Cundinamarca.
Read moreISA's president, Jorge Carrillo, announced the company will expand into energy storage while maintaining its core businesses of electricity transmission and infrastructure.
Read moreColombia inaugurated "Pétalo del Norte I," its first solar project to meet international standards, located in La Esperanza, Norte de Santander.
Read moreACIEM, the Colombian engineers’ association published this article advocating nuclear power investment for the country’s Caribbean region. While the Caribbean is the country’s center for renewable energy, that needs complementary firm power to smooth out the irregularities of Mother Nature and coal is no longer a long-term strategic option.
Read moreColombia’s longstanding struggle to guarantee universal access to energy is resurfacing with urgency.
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Well maybe not rain a lot or even right now, but enough to ensure that when the dry season arrives in December (as all Colombians hope it does) the hydro dam reservoirs are full enough to maintain power without problems.
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Against the principles of the Colombian government’s energy transition strategy, the percentage of Non-Renewable power has been increasing in the past couple of months. (Brown area in the lead graph.) Why?
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With so much bad news coming out of the Petro government and elections looming, ministers are no doubt encouraged to come out with “good news” press releases. MinEnergia Edwin Palma announced “The country achieved 13.7% in clean energy”, referencing September 2025. We couldn’t reproduce that number. But the real story is not a bad one either.
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MinEnergia Edwin Palma and President Gustavo Petro like to tell us that there’s lots of new solar generation capacity coming online. But we can’t see it in XM’s databases and we even think about 500MWp went missing in March of this year. We are not saying the new capacity doesn’t exist: it just doesn’t appear in the official records.
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Colombia worries about importing gas because of its higher price. This obviously affects everyone using gas but there will also be an impact on electricity prices given the continuing importance of gas-powered thermogeneration to the matrix (to the chagrin of the “Illuminati”).
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Scary to think we are already deep into July and 2025 is more than half over. (Which means we are halfway through the quarter-century year. Sheesh!) XM updated its official publication of generation data, and we processed the daily numbers to estimate 1H25 demand. Here is where we are.
Read moreBetween April and June 2025, Colombia’s railway development narrative has shifted from stalled hopes to visible traction—especially around implementation timelines, contract finalizations, and funding certainty. At least for some projects.
Read moreI am not a certified engineer but I’ve worked in communications networks for nearly half-a century. A PE-investor once told me that engineers who work in electrical networks have no respect for communications engineers because of the difference in voltage. Grab the wrong wire under the wrong circumstances and you will die. We now have (multiple) analyses of the great Iberian blackout at the end of April. There are lessons to be learned from them.
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Today’s article about Ecopetrol buying wind and solar projects left and right, inspired the above graph. By 2027, ECP will indeed have a big impact on Colombia’s stock of renewable generation. This article updates our capacity graphs to the end of last week and digs deeper into the National Oil Company’s stock of renewable energy.
Read moreAlmost exactly a year ago to the day you will see this article, we published a long analysis of Levelized Costs of Energy (LCOE) in a Colombian context. Recently a number of energy research organizations have updated their LCOE although the UPME has not. Also recently, XM held an auction for power generation and the results should tell us something about how investors perceive relative costs… or risks.
Read moreA number of observers worry that Colombia will run out of generating capacity in 2026 or 2027. The ministry, of course, says it has everything under control. The president thinks the answer is rooftop solar even in rainy, high-rise, Bogotá. What does the data say?
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April showers allowed XM to continue to use hydro but still see reservoir levels rise. Updating our fundamental daily-data charts on generation and reservoirs.
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For the end of the first quarter of 2025, we updated our XM database which contains the key monthly indicators of power demand and supply. We have noted previously that the generation matrix was turning back to hydro, no doubt for cost reasons, but perhaps too soon to maintain reservoir levels.
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In Bogotá, we seem to get a tropical downpour every afternoon. At various times, rural areas have been isolated by landslides caused by saturated earth. But you have to squint at the above graph to see an increase in reservoir levels right at the far right hand side of the chart, something from the last few days, and so maybe a blip. Why?
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The good news is that wholesale electricity prices continue to fall. The bad news is that maybe it still isn’t raining enough. We can explain.
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We can debate strategic issues like why Colombia should accelerate energy transition while sitting on enormous coal reserves or tactical issues like whether the Levelized Cost of Energy is lower for solar or gas thermal. But we cannot debate that Mother Nature is harder to predict than a thermal plant.
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