Colombia's Ministry of Environment issued a circular to all autonomous regional corporations, urban environmental authorities, and local governments on May 28, setting out ten operational directives for managing the El Niño phenomenon expected to consolidate in the second half of 2026 and potentially extend into early 2027.
Read moreJuan Ricardo Ortega, president of Grupo Energía Bogotá, told W Radio's 6AM program on May 28 that electricity tariffs in Colombia face an upward trajectory over the coming months, driven by three interlocking cost pressures that are coinciding at a moment of unusual vulnerability for the national energy system.
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Colombia's thermal generation sector has been burning significantly more fuel since mid-May, with XM data showing coal consumption at thermal plants rising 47.9% between January and May 2026 -- from 132.7 to 196.3 GBTUd -- and gas consumption rising 65.1%, from 122.2 to 201.7 GBTUd.
Read moreThe Consejo Gremial Nacional issued an urgent public appeal on May 29 to the government, the Ministry of Mines and Energy, and CREG to act immediately on what it described as a real and imminent risk of both electricity and gas supply failure. Industry sources speaking anonymously to Portafolio were starker still: "we need a miracle to save ourselves from the blackout."
Read moreColombia's 23 monitored hydroelectric reservoirs closed May at 66.38% of capacity -- a 2.35 percentage-point improvement over April's 64.03% but still well short of the 80% analysts consider the minimum safe level for withstanding a prolonged dry period.
Read moreColombia's National Environmental Licensing Authority (ANLA) issued a public clarification on May 28 pushing back against media reports that implied the Hidroituango hydroelectric project required new regulatory approvals to raise its reservoir to 420 meters above sea level.
Read moreColombia's cement and concrete industry is navigating a convergence of energy-cost pressures, gas supply uncertainty, and growing international decarbonization requirements that together are redefining the economics of one of the country's most infrastructure-critical sectors.
Read moreThe economic price tag on a potential rationing scenario is the most important thing El País's May 25 expert survey adds to a story we have already well documented elsewhere, including today.
Read moreAndesco, Colombia's public utilities industry body, issued its starkest public warning to date on May 21, laying out five interconnected risk factors it says could drive the country into electricity rationing -- and giving the government a three-to-four month window to act before the dry season becomes unmanageable.
Read moreColombia faces an imminent risk of electricity rationing and sharp tariff increases as El Niño bears down on a power system weakened by four years of poor decisions.
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Energy services platform Klik has published an analysis warning that Colombia's electricity grid faces a compounded stress test in the second half of 2026: the coincidence of El Niño, a structural firm-energy deficit, and the surge in demand that accompanies every Colombia match at the World Cup.
Read morePresident Gustavo Petro escalated Colombia's official response to the approaching El Niño on May 22, announcing a package of energy and food security measures via his X account and warning that constitutional tools remain on the table if normal administrative channels prove too slow.
Read moreThe Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development has granted conditional environmental clearance for the exploration phase of the Nereidas geothermal project, located in the Macizo Volcánico del Ruiz in Caldas department.
Read moreThree industry voices converged in the third week of May to paint a consistent and sobering picture of Colombia's energy exposure as El Niño approaches: the sector is entering the dry season with a negative firm-energy balance, insufficient gas, a crippled Caribbean distributor, and a new generation pipeline that has chronically underdelivered.
Read moreEnergy Minister Edwin Palma has sent a formal circular to the Comisión de Regulación de Energía y Gas (CREG) acknowledging what he calls an "imminent risk" of electricity rationing across Colombia -- a significant reversal from his own public statements made just days earlier, when he told an audience in Atlántico that a blackout was not going to happen.
Read moreColombia's Ministry of Mines and Energy has activated a preparedness roadmap containing 50 specific actions to protect the electricity and gas systems ahead of El Niño 2026--2027, presenting the plan during a session of the Advisory Commission on Energy Situation Monitoring (Cacsse) on May 12.
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Several articles recently have noted the coming El Niño, perhaps “Super” El Niño and the need to ensure the hydro reservoirs are at their highest possible level.
Read moreWith El Niño conditions expected in the second half of 2026, the Ministry of Mines and Energy has issued Circular 40021 of 2026, directing all entities of the executive branch to establish measurable energy-saving targets, adopt clean energy where possible, and conduct periodic compliance evaluations.
Read moreColombia's central bank is sounding a clear warning about the inflationary consequences of an El Niño event that forecasters expect to arrive in the second half of 2026, intensifying toward a peak in September and potentially setting temperature records.
Read moreGrid operator XM has circulated an internal report, obtained by El Tiempo, laying out a detailed set of technical requirements for Colombia to navigate an anticipated strong El Niño event expected to develop toward the end of 2026 – a scenario the document warns could push the system "to operating levels that have never been seen before" and place reliable demand coverage at risk.
Read moreThree of Colombia's main electricity industry associations and the market manager have issued coordinated warnings about the structural fragility of the national grid as the probability of a strong El Niño phenomenon in the second half of 2026 rises – adding a climatic stress test to a system that analysts say is already operating with insufficient margin.
Read moreMinister of Mines and Energy Edwin Palma used an appearance at the ninth Encuentro y Feria de Renovables Latam, held at the Centro de Eventos Puerta de Oro in Barranquilla, to issue an unusually candid assessment of Colombia's energy security outlook, describing the convergence of climate risk and global geopolitical disruption as "quite a difficult cocktail."
Read moreColombia's Attorney General's Office is preparing to bring criminal charges against three senior engineers involved in the construction and oversight of the Hidroituango hydroelectric project, accusing them of causing an environmental catastrophe during the 2018 emergency that nearly destroyed the dam.
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Colombia's national interconnected system reservoirs recovered to an average useful volume of 62.8% as of mid-April, driven by rainfall over the preceding days, according to the latest report from the Superintendency of Public Services (Superservicios).
Read moreSanta Marta hosted the First International Conference for the Transition Beyond Fossil Fuels from April 24–29, 2026, co-organized by Colombia and the Netherlands as a high-level platform for governments, academics, civil society, and industry representatives to map concrete pathways away from oil, gas, and coal.
Read moreColombia is heading into a potential El Niño episode with a structural shortfall in firm energy capacity that leaves the system dangerously exposed to a prolonged drought, according to Natalia Gutiérrez, president of the electricity generators industry association Acolgen and of the National Business Council.
Read moreEnlaza, the power transmission subsidiary of Grupo Energía Bogotá (GEB), has launched E-CoTigrillo, a formal conservation strategy for the woolly ocelot (tigrillo lanudo), a vulnerable feline species whose habitat overlaps with the company's Chivor II–Norte and Sogamoso transmission projects in Cundinamarca.
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A Corficolombiana research report cited by Bloomberg Línea delivers the starkest assessment yet of Colombia's gas supply trajectory: production is in freefall, imports are surging to compensate, and the country is becoming dangerously dependent on infrastructure never designed for the role it is now playing.
Read moreSpeaking at the Naturgas industry association congress in Cartagena, Minister of Mines and Energy Edwin Palma issued a pointed warning to energy sector actors that climate experts have flagged a probable El Niño event — one that could develop into a severe episode — and that preparation cannot wait.
Read moreThe probability of El Niño conditions developing in Colombia has exceeded 60% in the near term and could reach 90% by September.
Read moreWith El Niño now forecast to arrive in September 2026, Colombia's thermal generation sector is navigating a dual challenge: securing sufficient fuel volumes while managing an increasingly stark price divergence between gas and coal that is already reshaping industrial consumption patterns.
Read moreWith the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts projecting that the El Niño event expected to begin in September 2026 could rival the historically severe episodes of 1982, 1997 and 2015, Colombia's electricity generators are pushing back against expectations of a dramatic spike in consumer electricity bills — while acknowledging a more troubling underlying constraint.
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This week XM, the electricity market manager, highlighted that hydro reservoirs were not yet filled enough to withstand an El Niño event. It seemed to suggest using coal plants to let the reservoirs fill up a bit faster.
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Colombia's wholesale electricity market administrator XM has issued a formal alert warning that the country will need to significantly expand its thermal generation capacity ahead of the El Niño phenomenon now forecast to begin in September 2026, with reservoir levels currently running well short of the target required to enter the dry season safely.
Read moreHidroItuango's reservoir has dipped back below maximum fill, recording 97.9% capacity according to the Superintendencia de Servicios Públicos Domiciliarios — a reading that could bring to a close more than 40 consecutive days of spillway releases driven by the heavy rainy season inflows to the Cauca River.
Read moreForecasters are increasingly confident, unfortunately, that a Super El Niño — one of the most powerful climate events on record — could develop in the second half of 2026, with potentially severe consequences for Colombia's already-stressed electricity system.
Read moreEcopetrol has obtained water use certification for five additional production fields, bringing the total number of certified assets to 23 — a roster that includes the Barrancabermeja and Cartagena refineries.
Read moreColombia became a member of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and one of the perks comes as technical assistance. Late last year, the country used that help to produce a roadmap to net zero.
Read moreEmpresas Públicas de Medellín (EPM) went on the offensive in late March 2026 following the Environment Ministry's announcement of a sanction process against Hidroituango, with General Manager Jhon Maya Salazar questioning both the basis and the scope of the investigation.
Read moreColombia's energy, agricultural, and macroeconomic outlook faces a new headwind: the Ministry of Environment, IDEAM, and the national disaster risk agency UNGRD have all confirmed an 80% probability of El Niño developing and consolidating in the second half of 2026, with a 13% chance of a "super El Niño" — defined as sea surface temperature warming above 2°C — toward year-end.
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With other issues on their minds, President Gustavo Petro and MinEnergia Edwin Palma have stopped complaining about reservoir levels. We still thought we would update our principal charts concerning water levels in hydro dams, which we hadn’t looked at in six weeks or so.
Read moreEPM has launched a technical cooperation project with the South Korean government focused on developing circular economy solutions for the Hidroituango reservoir, the 78-kilometer impoundment on the Cauca River that houses Colombia's largest hydroelectric plant.
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Colombia's Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development and IDEAM issued an early warning on March 16, 2026 following detection of warming signals in the equatorial Pacific Ocean indicating possible El Niño development during the second half of the year, with potential implications for national water resources and agricultural sectors.
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