Electricity, Forecasts, Thursday Thoughts Mar 8, 2023 5:51 PM
I have been involved with forecasting since the mid 1970s. My undergraduate essay deals with forecasting models and my masters’ concerns the effect of outliers or unusual extreme events on projections. I have built forecasting models for everything from commuter train ticket sales to oil field production and supervised forecasting teams that produced millions of datapoints every year. But I still get surprised when people mix up where forecasts come from and what they mean. The lead graph from the UPME’s latest energy projections (above) illustrates the issue.
