UPME’s energy projections

Energy, Regulation & Policy    Jul 12, 2021 6:13 PM

Colombia’s Mining and Energy Planning Unit (UPME) announced its energy projections for the period 2021-2035.

The entity estimates that electricity demand in the short term (next two years) will be between 187GWh to 211GWh with a probability of 71%, Valora Analitik reported.

This will represent a growth of 3.4% compared to the average daily consumption observed in 2020.

This is a result of the economic growth outlook and the recovery trend in demand observed in the last quarter of 2020, according to UPME.

The entity estimates that energy demand will reach and exceed 2019 values during 3Q21.

Energy demand could have an average annual growth between 2.28% and 2.6% with a 34% probability between 2021 and 2035.

UPME’s scenarios incorporate the possibilities of higher demand from Large Special Consumers (LSC) and the incorporation of electric vehicles.

The share of electric vehicles is estimated to be between 0.10% and 4.31% and with a contribution between 0.12% and 0.61% to the annual growth of energy demand.

In addition, it is estimated that the maximum power demand, including LSC and electric vehicles, could present an average annual growth between 1.60% and 2.06%, respectively for the period 2021-2035.

Including distributed generation, the average annual growth could be between 0.102% and 0.109%, according to UPME’s calculations.

Bottom-Line: The outlook is conservative, considering that there is still a lot of uncertainty in the economic recovery process, social protests and the delays in vaccination against Covid-19.

The government should make a greater effort in the vaccination process to reduce uncertainty and work on the social issue.

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