You know. The kind you shouldn’t watch but can’t stop peaking through your fingers to see what happens next. Electricaribe / Air-e is like that. You know there will be blood but you have to be there as it unfolds. Will Afinia be the next victim?
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Recently, the head of XM, the electricity market manager, told Valor Analitik, a business news site, that electricity demand would increase by 25% through 2033, driven by “electrified transport, coverage expansion, industrial development and the rise of energy-intensive technologies like Artificial Intelligence.” We would like to believe that but see no evidence in the data.
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Today’s article about Ecopetrol buying wind and solar projects left and right, inspired the above graph. By 2027, ECP will indeed have a big impact on Colombia’s stock of renewable generation. This article updates our capacity graphs to the end of last week and digs deeper into the National Oil Company’s stock of renewable energy.
Read moreAlmost exactly a year ago to the day you will see this article, we published a long analysis of Levelized Costs of Energy (LCOE) in a Colombian context. Recently a number of energy research organizations have updated their LCOE although the UPME has not. Also recently, XM held an auction for power generation and the results should tell us something about how investors perceive relative costs… or risks.
Read moreA number of observers worry that Colombia will run out of generating capacity in 2026 or 2027. The ministry, of course, says it has everything under control. The president thinks the answer is rooftop solar even in rainy, high-rise, Bogotá. What does the data say?
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April showers allowed XM to continue to use hydro but still see reservoir levels rise. Updating our fundamental daily-data charts on generation and reservoirs.
Read morePalma and Petro. Petro and Palma. The (not so) new Energy Minister Edwin Palma comes from Ecopetrol with a stint as Vice Minister of Labor and, more recently, as the “intervenor” in beleaguered Caribbean power distributor, Air-e. If he learned anything from these experiences, he seems have suppressed it to follow President Gustavo Petro’s whims. We will all suffer a black eye for the consequences.
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For the end of the first quarter of 2025, we updated our XM database which contains the key monthly indicators of power demand and supply. We have noted previously that the generation matrix was turning back to hydro, no doubt for cost reasons, but perhaps too soon to maintain reservoir levels.
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Just as we made our last check for the quarterly roundup of rail transport-related articles, MinTransporte announced a winner for the country’s first PPP (Public Private Partnership) for the core rail line up the Magdalena River.
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In Bogotá, we seem to get a tropical downpour every afternoon. At various times, rural areas have been isolated by landslides caused by saturated earth. But you have to squint at the above graph to see an increase in reservoir levels right at the far right hand side of the chart, something from the last few days, and so maybe a blip. Why?
Read moreThis decade has demonstrated how “science” swings with “politics”. For the first half, anthropogenic climate change increased temperatures and a global consensus drove energy transition. Since Monday, January 20th of this year, all that has changed. What will happen in Colombia on August 7th 2026?
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The good news is that wholesale electricity prices continue to fall. The bad news is that maybe it still isn’t raining enough. We can explain.
Read moreLast month we wrote that we had expected to see geothermal play an important role in Colombia’s energy matrix but it wasn’t happening. Since that article we found some more material, some Colombian but mostly global. Many of the challenges are not unique to here.
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We can debate strategic issues like why Colombia should accelerate energy transition while sitting on enormous coal reserves or tactical issues like whether the Levelized Cost of Energy is lower for solar or gas thermal. But we cannot debate that Mother Nature is harder to predict than a thermal plant.
Read moreI recently came across an article from a US business school analyzing whether farmers there should raise corn or install solar panels. That got me thinking about Colombia’s rural solar opportunity which President Gustavo Petro thinks could make the country an energy exporter.
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The Petro government has put virtually all its “eggs” in a solar basket, relying almost exclusively on rooftop or community solar for growth. These have indeed grown in quantity but very little or none translates into additional capacity for the grid.
Read moreLast week, The Economist’s weekly environmental newsletter The Climate Issue, talked about regions where deserts meet oceans as “creating the ideal conditions for generating renewable electricity”. Colombia has one of those.
Read moreJust slightly over a year ago we published a general article on geothermal energy in Colombia. We were positive saying that “Geothermal could fill the reliability gap”. Since that time, there has been some development but not as much as we hoped, unfortunately.
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XM recently wrote a press release which we covered, celebrating increases in electricity generating capacity during 2024,. The very same day, we published an article with commentary by ex-MinEnergias, consultants and generation industry association, Alcogen, saying capacity was tight and rationing was a risk. One day later, the Comptroller General warned of rationing and maybe blackouts. What is the real situation?
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XM has published all the data on 2024 that we expect to see. What do the numbers tell us about demand trends, the management of El Niño (and La Niña), the generation matrix, imported gas and the growth of non-traditional sources?
Read moreCongressional and presidential elections come next year in 2026. President Gustavo Petro wants the winning candidates to provide continuity with his programs, so this year, 2025, represents his last chance to influence voters. Although his reforms affect broad swaths of the Colombian economy, he clearly sees energy policy as an opportunity to leave a mark.
Read moreOver the holidays, the Petro government moved even closer to buying Air-e, not merely “intervening” and operating it on a (theoretically) short-term basis. The other Caribbean operator, Afina, has repeatedly offered Petro “the car keys”. Also Minhacienda is not paying its bills, pushing even major players like EPM into financial problems. Is the goal renationalization? Some history might help understanding.
Read moreThe Colombian government has delivered the first 80 "Casas del Sol" (Solar Houses) in the La Guajira department, benefiting 1,438 Indigenous families from local tribes.
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With nearly a kilometer of elevated infrastructure complete, Bogotá’s long-delayed metro might actually be built. This and other stories in our quarterly update of rail and public transportation news in Colombia.
Read moreThe COP16 / COP29 double header is over, bookending the US presidential and congressional elections, perhaps the most significant event in climate policy in recent memory. What, if anything, are the implications for the planet and for Colombia.
Read moreThe debate between industry associations and the government can be characterized or perhaps caricaturized by the dichotomy in the title. Maybe the debate is fundamental (as the industry associations and liberal economists believe) or maybe it is irrelevant because the two can coexist.
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COP16 in Cali was a great success for the city and for MinAmbiente Susana Muhamad. However, given that it ended without a consensus declaration, it failed to achieve its ultimate purpose. But lots of groups had lots to say and some of these were relevant for green power and for Colombia.
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Halloween is not as pervasive in Colombia as Christmas nor as pervasive as it is in other countries. Nor is November 1st the “Day of the Dead” as it is in Mexico. This Monday is a “puente”, Friday’s “All Souls Day” slid to the other side of the weekend because Colombians prefer that. Likely no one will knock on our door tonight (few or no kids in our building) and orange and black is nowhere to be seen except in a few shopping centers. But scary stories abound in the energy sector!
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A recently-published academic article says that, over a twenty-year period, using coal to produce electricity contributes less to greenhouse gases than using natural gas. Natural gas produces less carbon dioxide but more of the more-damaging methane. Do we have energy transition backwards?
Read moreThis week in Hydrocarbons Colombia, we published an article based on an Andeg press release about the government’s proposed carbon tax increase. There are either fundamental errors in the proposal or in Andeg’s interpretation of how it would work.
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A couple of weeks ago, ACIEM, the Colombian engineers’ association, held its annual ENERCOL energy conference and National Hydrocarbons Agency (ANH), Orlando Velandia gave the closing remarks. He said a couple of things that seem to go against the grain of conventional wisdom.
Read moreIn the 1990s, the traditional, hierarchical telecommunications industry fought with those advocating newer, flatter networks. We called it the “Netheads versus the Bellheads” since, in North America, the largest traditional operators had come out of the so-called “Bell System”. Sitting in ENERCOL last week and listening to the traditional, hierarchical energy industry do battle with Petro government representatives advocating newer, flatter energy networks, I could not help but notice the analogy.
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Some analysts think there will not be enough generating capacity to satisfy demand as early as 2025. The Minister, unsurprisingly, assures that there will be. Obviously both demand and supply will determine what happens and both are highly uncertain.
Read moreThe current Colombian government certainly believes in the green hydrogen opportunity. As recently as earlier this month we have seen new announcements of Ministry plans. But is this real or just a feel-good press release?
Read moreThe obvious answer is yes. Eventually. Unless President Gustavo Petro is right, and the world comes to an end in 2030. (He did not provide a precise date so we recommend being prepared for everything to still be around until at least December 31st, 2030, just in case.) But many have doubts that the government will achieve its goals for the period 2022 to 2026. A recent article by Bloomberg Linea tries to address the issue.
Read moreYesterday’s holiday in Colombia coincided with the two-year anniversary of Gustavo Petro’s presidency. We are now at the mid-way point in his period. He – and we – have two more years to go. How do we evaluate his midterm examinations?
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Actually, we did not need XM’s data on electricity demand to know that the Colombian economy passes through a slow patch but it helps that the signals are consistent.
Read moreA recent Financial Times Energy Source article describes a disastrous transition project from South Africa. Describing it as a “cautionary tale”, the FT story demonstrates the problems with accelerating the shift from fossil fuels before having all the pieces in place. Colombia can learn from it.
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No this isn’t a Moiré pattern and you are not expected to see John Lennon’s ghost or something like that if you squint at it long enough or under the influence of an inappropriate substance (legal or otherwise). It also isn’t a picture of some fabric design you saw one Sunday at the flea market in Usaquen.
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Although XM has not published demand statistics for June, we do have the official summary of supply / generation. As El Niño came to a slow end, someone in authority decided it was over at the end of April and thermoelectric generation fell dramatically. We also check the solar statistics to confirm the positive press releases that came out last week.
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The Petro government is doing its best to promote rail and other forms of public transport but this year so far, the story is not great: rail cargo is down 11% year-over-year. The issue is coal (over 99% of all rail-carried cargo) which is down the same 11%. This and other stories about rail and mass transport from our review of the second quarter.
Read moreThe papers all say Andrés Camacho will soon leave his post of MinEnergia and even name his replacement. At the risk of President Gustavo Petro changing his – or Camacho’s – mind at the last minute, we reflect on the minister’s brief passage for the role.
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Colombia’s carbon tax is a mere US$6 per ton of CO2equivalent, perhaps a useful source revenue but hardly a disincentive. What would an effective tax look like?
Read moreReaders of our sister publication, Hydrocarbons Colombia, know the ANH well. The National Hydrocarbons Agency regulates the oil and gas business: high-level prospecting, assigning blocks, writing contracts with companies, policing those contracts, collecting royalties and other so-called “economic rights of the nation”. In his CREG-less vision of the future, President Gustavo Petro sees an expanded role for the ANH.
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El Niño made it clear that Colombia needs more, non-hydro, generating capacity as climate change increases the risk of drought. Government policy and good environmental stewardship say that will not be thermal. But if the answer says “other nature-based renewables” then the country risks trading one type of variability for another. We looked at XM data from 2023 to see what we could learn.
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Now that El Niño fades in the rearview mirror (really?) questions arise about the next climate event and whether Colombia has enough of a pipeline for new capacity to handle it.
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Our recent article about the viability of renewable energy investments leaned heavily on Levelized Cost of Energy or LCOE and, coincidentally, the Energy Institute (EI) updated its LCOE estimates for a range of technologies. For comparison and for local flavor, we found the UPME LCOE’s on the website (with some questions pending) and the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) estimates.
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Time for an update on the green (and other hued low-emission) hydrogen opportunity in Colombia. We look at that changing rainbow from a global perspective, report on some short-term challenges in the country with hydrogen-based transportation and reflect on the government’s efforts to put green H2 production at the center of its industrial strategy.
Read moreAt the end of February, we wrote about the importance of storage for highly variable renewable energy sources especially solar whose efficiency depends on latitude, location and sun’s angle to generate energy. And we noted the importance of finding greener solutions than the existing lead-acid and lithium-ion batteries to do this. In the meantime, we found a company in Panama selling a supercapacitor-based storage solution that meets these challenges.
Read moreWe return to the book The Price is Wrong by Brett Christophers to look at his conclusions and recommendations as well as the implications for Colombia and President Gustavo Petro’s policies.
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El Niño has dried up Colombian reservoirs, sapping the country’s ability to generate hydropower. The entirely predictable consequence is a dramatic increase in thermal generation from fossil fuels, the “Illuminati’s” worst nightmare. Lately, we have zoomed into XM’s data looking at daily statistics to see how the reservoir situation evolves. In this article, we mostly zoom out to monthly data to see what the larger trends might mean, zooming in to look again at Hidroituango.
Read moreI am reading a new book by geographer, Brett Christophers, called The Price is Wrong: Why Capitalism Won’t Save the Planet. He argues that, despite their now low theoretical cost per kilowatt-hour, solar and wind power, will not achieve investor profitability targets, resulting in under investment, certainly insufficient investment to displace fossil-fuel-based generation. That means either governments must continue to subsidize solar and wind power or – probably Colombian President Gustavo Petro’s preferred solution – state-owned enterprises will transform the energy matrix.
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The transition to train transport seems “on rails” this year in Colombia if you will excuse the expression, with government policy statements, new projects and new equipment. And we will not even get into President Gustavo Petro’s obsession with an underground subway in Bogota!
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Continuing on from last week’s Thursday Thought we look at some of the relevant factors using disguised data from a member of the Colombian electricity sector.
Read moreEveryone can agree that tariffs should be fair. Who would agree they could be unfair? The Minister of Energy, Andrés Camacho, says “Our goal is to guarantee fair rates.” But what does that mean? Fair to whom? Everyone? Is that even possible? Are Colombian tariffs unfair and how do you make that determination in the first place?
Read moreAs the sun goes down on a Ministry of Energy approved and organized Energy Community, what will happen? Darkness? Grid power? Or will a storage device kick in? The topic has not been discussed much, at least in the press.
Read moreePC readers know our skepticism about Colombian President Gustavo Petro’s idea of doing away with utility companies, generating all power with rooftop solar. National newspaper El Tiempo picked up a Washington Post article about a “zero electricity bill” community in Florida (Hunters Point) so we thought we would have a look again at the topic.
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President Gustavo Petro and MinAmbiente Susana Muhamad insist that El Niño is under control. The only really horrific climate-related disaster the country has had was caused by too much rain not too little, a local reminder that higher global temperatures mean more extreme weather not necessarily drier (or wetter for that matter) universally. So what is happening to the country’s hydro reservoirs and what power generation choices do we have?
Read moreOver the holiday period, we continued to monitor the Colombian press for articles on renewable power generation and sustainability more broadly. Some will appear as standalone articles in the coming days, but we also found the following items interesting and relevant.
Read moreThis week’s long essay was supposed to be about COP28, which (according to the schedule) would finish on Tuesday December 12th at 11am Dubai time. It did not. COPs have never finished on time and this one had sufficient controversy over the language around fossil fuels that I did not expect it to finish in time for my deadline.
Read moreThe Colombian Association of Electric Energy Distributors (Asocodis), on the eve of the XIX Electric Energy Distribution Conference, shed light on the challenges confronting the country in terms of the energy transition.
Read moreAt the 20th edition of the National Infrastructure Congress, discussions on energy transition took the spotlight, outlining innovative strides in the sector.
Read moreThe alliance between GreenYellow and the Barranquilla Port marked a significant stride toward greener operations.
Read moreThe Enel Group recently announced its global strategy for 2024-2026, focusing on profitability, flexibility, resilience, efficiency, and financial as well as environmental sustainability.
Read moreLa Guajira, Colombia’s preeminent department for renewable potential, is set to embark on a significant initiative at the onset of 2024 with the launch of the Energy Communities program.
Read moreThe future of Colombia's electric grid appears to hinge on a blend of renewable and traditional energy sources, a recent projection by the Mining and Energy Planning Unit (UPME) indicates.
Read moreThe Indigenous community in Colombia's La Guajira region has reservations about the wind energy initiatives, despite the region's enormous potential for wind power.
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Dialogo Canada is an annual forum to exchange ideas between Colombia and Canada about business and related policy issues. Organized by the Colombia-Canada Chamber of Commerce, the 13th edition was held on November 15th in Bogotá. After the introductory speeches, the first panel was on hydrogen (H2), a major topic for MinEnergia and investors, both local and international.
Read more Economic growth, the Colombian government’s plans for electrification and exporting green hydrogen all require significant increases in generating and transmission capacity. So far, the Roadmap and the National Energy Plan update have only looked at demand and how policy makers want to see it served. In October, the UPME published its annual report on capacity requirements to meet this demand.
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Recently national newspaper El Espectador published a syndicated article about leveraging Just Energy Transition Partners (JETP) to Latin America. JETP offers funding to emerging markets countries to accelerate their energy transition. Would this work for Colombia?
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In July, the Colombian government revealed its energy transition “roadmap”. In late September, the International Energy Agency (IEA), a global energy thinktank, published its “Net Zero Roadmap: A Global Pathway to Keep the 1.5oC Goal in Reach” and then recently published its World Energy Outlook for 2023. The public version of the IEA’s database does not break out Colombia so we cannot do a direct comparison, but we can make some inferences. So what, if anything, can we learn from these about Colombia’s transition roadmap?
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“Water under the bridge” refers to “events that are in the past and consequently no longer to be regarded as important”. But with El Niño already drying up Colombia’s hydroelectric dam reservoirs, energy planners have to worry about keeping back all the water they can.
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Last March, I wrote an article called “We’ll always have Paris” talking about the IPCC’s AR6 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2023 report which concluded that the world was unlikely to make the COP 21 – aka “Paris” – commitments to limit global warming to 1.5oC above pre-industrial levels by 2100. A recently published chart says we may already have blown it.
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In our recent article about MinEnergia’s roadmap, Greased Lightning, we noted that MinEnergia was not using the UPME’s forecasts, at least for the Transport sector and we asked “if the Ministry is not using the UPME’s numbers, whose are they using?” The Ministry website has an Excel with all the numbers (that we swear wasn’t there before) that allows a detailed comparison and an Appendix (that we must have missed) with an explanation of the different assumptions. At least now we know.
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Even when you are sure of what you are doing, a second opinion always helps. Also, when you need to be public with your actions, you always worry about what others – especially experts – think. So the Colombian government must have nervously awaited the opinions of the International Energy Agency (IEA) about the country’s energy transition plans.
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OK. Not strictly on topic. But we have to have fun every once in a while, and I’m sure your companies have discussed what Artificial Intelligence (AI) means for your operation. I have experimented with some of the more interesting tools, ChatGPT and MidJourney, so thinking you will find this useful. Or amusing. Or both! Or neither. (This article has lots of graphics. It may be better viewed on a laptop or pad and over WiFi.)
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XM, operator of the National Interconnected System (SIN) and administrator of the Wholesale Energy Market (MEM), reported consumption results for March 2023.
Read moreXM, the operator of the National Interconnected System (SIN), reported the number of new projects added to the SIN in the first quarter of the year.
Read moreThe Colombian Association of Engineers (ACIEM) presented comments on the proposed decree that sets policies and guidelines to promote efficiency and competitiveness in the national electricity service.
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I’m in Canada for a few weeks and getting to spend time with Barrie and Laurie, my retired, environmentally conscious friends. I got an update on rooftop solar and we took day-long trip in their electric Hyundai Kona. The shape of things to come for Colombians.
Read moreÓmar Vargas, Managing Director of Siemens Energy for the North Andean Region, spoke about the energy transition and the challenges of this process.
Read moreThe Superintendency of Residential Public Utilities (SuperServicios) has made new senior appointments.
Read moreEPM announced changes in the company's strategic areas and business units, including vice presidencies and subsidiaries.
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Colombian President Gustavo Petro has been doing the rounds of multilateral organizations saying that countries, like his, which steward resources that mitigate climate change (like the Amazon rainforest) should have their debt forgiven. The reception has been tepid at best and we expressed skepticism. Now a study by the French central bank casts further doubt on the concept.
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Colombia is discussing energy prices and reservoir levels. Experts spoke on the matter.
Read moreAcolgen's Natalia Gutiérrez spoke about energy prices and why power generators need signs of confidence from the government to move forward with more efficient technologies.
Read moreThe final draft of the National Development Plan (PND) includes a proposal to give the president extraordinary powers to create a state holding company for the electricity sector.
Read morePresident Gustavo Petro’s declaration that he personally would set utility rates has investors worried. Some industry associations and editorial writers say that investors will leave. However, it may not be as simple as charging off in a huff when the decrees are enacted or laws are passed.
Read moreJaime Pumarejo, mayor of Barranquilla, wants a law in Congress to lower rates in the coast which he claims are “inequitable and illegal.”
Read moreAlthough Colombia has a system of cross-subsidies these are insufficient to cover the shortfall for low-income families and the government of the day must write checks to the electricity distributors. José Camilo Manzur, president of the distributors’ industry association, Asocodis, estimates this could amount to CoP$2T by the end of 2023.
Read moreIn February Colombian President Gustavo Petro will file his government’s National Development Plan (known as PND for its initials in Spanish). The draft shows the importance of decarbonization.
Read moreCenit, a subsidiary of the Ecopetrol Group, reported the acquisition of the Cantayús small hydroelectric power plant (SHP), located in the municipality of Cisneros (Antioquia, Colombia).
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More power on offer should lower prices from what they might have been, but not all customers will necessarily see the benefit.
Read moreThe Ministry of Mines and Energy (MinEnergia) confirmed upcoming changes in management and coordination positions at the Vice Ministry of Energy. Here are the details.
Read moreColombians perceive they are still paying high energy prices, yet the country’s reservoirs are full, and the extended rainy season keeps them that way. Why?
Read moreOK. That is a bit exaggerated. But 2023 is officially underway and most Colombians are back from vacation. The policy-making machine is restarting, and our first Thursday Thoughts of the new year looks at what we think they will be working on.
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ISA S.A. E.S.P (BVC: ISA) reported its third quarter 2022 results. Here are the details.
Read moreThe government wants to get backlogged energy projects from previous auctions into operation, but some of these may be unfeasible.
Read moreEPM announced the contractor that will finish the civil aspect of the first stage of Hidroituango.
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